Functional divergence from ecological baselines on Caribbean coral reefs

Understanding how emergent ecological assemblages have diverged from natural states is fundamental in predicting future functioning and services of ecosystems. Coral reefs are particular concern due to their high susceptibility anthropogenic stressors. Yet, little known about pre-disturbance ranges states, most reports decline based on a limited number sites levels uncertainty. Here, we used novel approach estimate the physical functionality across marine ecoregions habitat suitability morpho-functional traits for coral species. We calibrated niche models 49 reef-building corals Greater Caribbean occurrence records environmental predictors, which combined with species-specific functional coefficients derived reflecting contribution reef three-dimensional structure potential (RFP). then assessed degree divergence western by comparing our estimates against recent field data evaluations. found spatial variability RFP Caribbean, highest mean value lowest areas marginal conditions. Hotspots exist along coast Belize southeast Cuba. Overall, 84% showed substantial reduction functioning, reductions occurring within hotspots, implying that displaying greatest changes initial RFP. conclude combining species valuable promising large-scale communities change absence baselines. These findings important implications could be guide efforts preserve define priority conservation Caribbean.